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  5. MX: The contract changes in Trinidad and Tobago seem to be a loss of sales. [Methanex Corporation]
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Q: The contract changes in Trinidad and Tobago seem to be a loss of sales. How much does the idling of the Atlas facility hurt the revenues of MX? The stock sold off on this news but I note some insider buying also. What is your current assessment of this as an investment?
Asked by Harry on October 19, 2023
5i Research Answer:

News of the updates with the national gas company of Trinidad and Tobago did not move the price much, and so we suspect that investors are largely OK with these developments. Its Titan methanol plant is currently idled (875K tonnes per year capacity)  and will restart with NGC in September 2024, but offsetting this it will idel its Atlas methanol plant (63% at 1.085M tonnes per year = 683.6K tonnes per year). Thus, there is a slight net benefit for the company's production by next year. 

MX pays a 1.3% yield, insiders were buying in the summer, sales growth has been somewhat lumpy, it has a high debt load, but valuation is pretty good at a 0.8X forward sales multiple. Free cash flow yield is good, and it's been repurchasing shares over the past few years. For exposure to the sector, we would be OK with this name, but we do not find it overly compelling at this time.