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  5. ATZ: Not sure if I understand correctly the transactions by insiders during the last few months. [Aritzia Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares]
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Q: Not sure if I understand correctly the transactions by insiders during the last few months. The corporation has bought and sold large amounts of shares. Individuals have bought and sold some as well. Looking at the overall number of shares traded I am not so sure that the result is positive. A second question is about the forcasts for next year (02/25) profit more than double. Is that realistic in your opinion and if so the stock is currently selling at 13 X next year's PE. I'm underwater in a registered account so no tax selling benefit. Buy more ? Wait for the next earnings release?

Thank you for your great advise.

Yves
Asked by Yves on October 16, 2023
5i Research Answer:

The company made a fairly large buyback in September, but we will not see how many shares it has bought back in total until the next quarterly report. In the first half of its fiscal year it bought back $9.9M in shares. The recent executive insider activity is net positive but the number of shares bought is not overly material. But also last week its second largest shareholder, Singapore GIC, announced it had bought more shares, moving its position to above 10%. On the forecast keep in mind that its fiscal year end is February. So the 'double' references year end Feb 2025. But, considering its 'misses', rising inventory issue, and investors' fear of recession, and debt, and tax loss selling, and negative momentum, the valuation is probably not out of line. Investors tend to 'anchor' events. In other words, since they 'missed' many quarters, they likely do not expect ATZ to meet those estimates anyway. We think it is OK and has good recovery potential. But we would view it as a HOLD and not a 'buy more' until we actually see some signs of fundamental improvement.