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  5. CNR: Do you consider either railway a good new investment right now? [Canadian National Railway Company]
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Investment Q&A

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Q: Do you consider either railway a good new investment right now? I used your interactive chart to compare the two, and if you bought CNR 10 years ago you are probably pretty happy, but over the last 5 years CP outperformed, and ytd CP has ground up a bit while CN has drifted down. In the current interest rate environment I don’t think anyone is buying either for the dividend? Is there an investment thesis here somewhere or are there just plain better ideas? Thanks for your thoughts.
Asked by Stephen R. on September 11, 2023
5i Research Answer:

The thesis we think comes from growth. Despite the expected cyclicality in the business, both have done very well over time on a fundamental basis. CNR's earnings per share have gone from $4.39 in 2015 to an expected $8.30 next year. CP from $1.99 to $4.68. We do not think the dividends are a big driver of interest. CP's large acquisition of Kansas City Southern adds growth potential, but also debt/risk. We think investors also like the duopolistic industry in Canada. These two basically own the market, more or less. This makes valuation on the high side for the sector, with CNR at 19X and CP at 27X. Neither has done much in the past year, with economic and rate concerns. But we think both could be owned right now, with a preference to CNR on valuation. Each we think is the type of stock just to put away for five to ten years.