Thanks!
NFI had extremely rapid growth from 2015 to 2018. Debt was lower, and earnings were accelerating. It was winning contracts, showing good momentum and an attractive valuation. Our. timing was not great. In 2018, earnings slipped, and then sales slowed and earnings fell off a cliff, resulting in four straight years of (increasing) losses, with another loss expected this year. Cash flow turned negative and the balance sheet deteriorated. It looked so much better in 2017, but we should have looked at the cyclicality closer and probably should have started at B or B+. We should have been more critical when it hit the second year or losses following robust earnings. We also likely bought into its takeover potential too much. Marco Polo, a giant bus company in Brazil, had been accumulating lots of shares (to 20%) and looked to be interested in acquiring NFI. When it sold it shares this of course negatively impacted price and sentiment.