Q: I’ve spent 30 years as an business owner in the irrigation sector, navigating four major tech shifts: mechanical dials, digital screens, cloud software, and now AI.
While financial models capture the numbers, they often miss the qualitative reality of running a business on the ground. In my experience, customers don't buy "code"—they buy reliability. Every time technology shifted, I never lost a customer. They didn't run to a startup; they called the partner they already trusted for the upgrade.
Why this benefits Constellation Software ($CSU):
• New Revenue Streams: In my business, every shift allowed me to sell new "value-add" services—from remote monitoring to predictive maintenance. CSU is doing the same. AI isn't a replacement; it's a premium feature they can upsell to a locked-in audience.
• Embedded Infrastructure: Like irrigation pipes in the ground, CSU’s software is mission-critical and expensive to replace. It’s a "Digital Utility."
• The Survival Filter: 50% of new companies go bankrupt in their first 5 years. A business owner won't gamble their operations on a "shiny" AI tool from a company that might not exist in 24 months.
• Margin Expansion: AI is a low-cost maintenance tool for incumbents. It allows CSU to support legacy systems at a fraction of the previous cost, turning a "cost center" into a "profit center."
I see a company that owns the "wall" (the relationship), while others worry about the "box" (the code). Does my reasoning—that tech shifts actually strengthen the incumbent by creating new revenue—make sense from your perspective?
While financial models capture the numbers, they often miss the qualitative reality of running a business on the ground. In my experience, customers don't buy "code"—they buy reliability. Every time technology shifted, I never lost a customer. They didn't run to a startup; they called the partner they already trusted for the upgrade.
Why this benefits Constellation Software ($CSU):
• New Revenue Streams: In my business, every shift allowed me to sell new "value-add" services—from remote monitoring to predictive maintenance. CSU is doing the same. AI isn't a replacement; it's a premium feature they can upsell to a locked-in audience.
• Embedded Infrastructure: Like irrigation pipes in the ground, CSU’s software is mission-critical and expensive to replace. It’s a "Digital Utility."
• The Survival Filter: 50% of new companies go bankrupt in their first 5 years. A business owner won't gamble their operations on a "shiny" AI tool from a company that might not exist in 24 months.
• Margin Expansion: AI is a low-cost maintenance tool for incumbents. It allows CSU to support legacy systems at a fraction of the previous cost, turning a "cost center" into a "profit center."
I see a company that owns the "wall" (the relationship), while others worry about the "box" (the code). Does my reasoning—that tech shifts actually strengthen the incumbent by creating new revenue—make sense from your perspective?
5i Research Answer:
Thank you for the "real world" comments. The thesis makes perfect sense to us. Investors are not always rational, of course! We may still see some companies destroyed by AI competition but we do not think CSU companies will be included in that fallout.