- Is the negative opinion regarding the recent immigration policy overblown?
- How does present valuation compare to it's historical past per the appropriate metrics?
- Are there major risks if / when there is a severe economic downturn?
- Can you comment on its balance sheet?
- Do you see its plan for modernizing its portfolio as impactful to the business?
- Are you optimistic about its ability to keep increasing distributions going forward?
1) This is hard to ascertain. The sector is of course influenced by population growth. If it slows, it may be hard to raise rents. Offsetting this may be housing affordibility, which may see more homeowners become renters. 2) Many use price to net asset value, but the latter makes a lot of assumptions. We prefer price/cash flow for an initial assessment, and then look at other metrics after that. CAR is 8.8X P/CF today. Historicals are in the 18x to 22X range. A recession could hurt growth and lease renewals, but the company tends to be fairly stable. A recession would most likely mean lower interest rates, which would be an offsetting positive for the company and stock. As is common for the sector, debt is high at $5.8B, versus $398M in 12-month operating cash flow. Debt to gross book value is reasonable at 37.7%. We think its portfolio plans do make good sense. In terms of distribution increases, yes, but at a relatively slow pace.