Q: EPS growth seems to be unpredictable due to the lumpiness of investment returns, and weather catastrophes. In the 2024 annual report Watsa uses Book Value per share compounding at 18.7% per year for the past 39 years and common stock price compounding at 19.2% (including dividends) as the main performance measure. Buffet suggests predictability of earnings as essential when buying a stock. Yahoo finance used to predict EPS growth 5 years out. While predicting EPS 5 years out is perhaps doable with confidence for KO, for FFH not so much. Clearly over 39 years FFH has done fabulous regardless of EPS lumpiness, but I have held this stock for over 10 years and all of the appreciation has come in the last 5 years or less. I want to buy more FFH, however I am concerned over another flat 5 years. Do you think the focus of the companies investing and underwriting strategy has changed enough to avoid 5 years of dead money? If you had to predict EPS growth for FFH over the next 5 years, what would that % growth be? Would you be comfortable buying at current prices for a 3-5 year hold? Thank you. John
5i Research Answer:
Because of the company's style, we can't do much about the earnings volatility. Value...