NA has launched a share buyback and is issuing shares for acquisitions, but is not doing a regular share issue. But earnings missed across the board. NA, which continues to integrate Canadian Western Bank, expects to achieve C$135 million of synergies by December. The C$69 million realized year to date (C$173 million annualized) suggests this timeline is achievable. Volatile capital-markets revenue and modest loan growth, including softer gains at Canadian Western Bank, show risks. Yet NA expects full-year EPS growth above mid-single digits (8% year to date), ahead of consensus' 5%. Net interest margin may decline in 4Q as loans outpace deposits. NBC's 8-million share buyback (only 2% of outstanding) keeps the focus on organic growth. It expects an impaired loan-provision ratio in the middle of 25-35 bps guidance for 2025, implying a potential 4Q uptick from the 28 bps through 3Q, as credit risks remain. The results are not great, especially compared with peers, but are not a reason to panic, with the stock already largely reflecting the news.
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