Q: Superior over time had hovered in the $12 to $16 range. Lots of volatility in it's history.
In 2011 it dropped below $6 and again in 2024.From 2011 to 2014 it recovered to over $14
In 2025 it has bounced off that $6 range, and analysts are forecasting a target price around $10. I have read your recent posts saying their 2025 fiscal year estimates raised.
Two questions:
1) What fundamentally caused this recent dive down to sub $6 from near $16?
2) Given management has raised it's guidance, are the fundamentals improving and is the $10 target estimate from analysts justified?
Thanks
In 2011 it dropped below $6 and again in 2024.From 2011 to 2014 it recovered to over $14
In 2025 it has bounced off that $6 range, and analysts are forecasting a target price around $10. I have read your recent posts saying their 2025 fiscal year estimates raised.
Two questions:
1) What fundamentally caused this recent dive down to sub $6 from near $16?
2) Given management has raised it's guidance, are the fundamentals improving and is the $10 target estimate from analysts justified?
Thanks
5i Research Answer:
1) SPB reported a series of earnings misses and disappointing growth. Then, the final straw was when the company cut its dividend by 75% in August of last year.
2) Yes on both, if one can believe management's forecasts. But, the company has missed estimates in 6 of the past 7 quarters, so we would remain a bit skeptical overall. It remains a more cyclical company that investors believed in the past. The dividend cut helps, but debt is still very much on the high side.