Any other thoughts ? Thanks. Derek
Things have calmed down a bit. Q1 production did meet estimates. Parex recently highlighted a potential bright spot of operational stability, with volume set to be broadly flat in 2Q following multiple quarters of decline from operational issues, though some near-term growth concerns remain. Year over year, production pressure is set to materialize and it could come in at the lower end of unchanged full-year guidance for 43,000-47,000 boepd, with management suggesting capex, drilling activity and production may flex to the downside if the oil pricing backdrop worsens. Capital discipline and strong free cash flow in 1Q is a good sign, though spending and activity will be second-half-weighted. Buybacks will likely be lower this year, which are on pace for about half of 2024's $75 million, or around 2 million shares, equating to 2% of outstanding. Columbia is still a question mark, as there continues to be some instability (student arrests, etc). Nothing too exciting, really, but this is reflected in the 6X earnings valuation and 12.7% dividend, which continues to be paid. The balance sheet is still debt-free and cash flow high ($500M+ annually). If we were in charge of PXT we would aim for a privatization. After tax financing would be lower than a 13% dividend, and the company could pay for itself within a few years.