I am wondering about the merit of purchasing NBLY shares prior to the deal close in order to acquire the Contingent Value Rights (CVR). My thinking is that this would require a short term commitment of capital that could potentially yield a payout in 2026. How likely is it that the EBITDA Target of $128M will be met? If one were to proceed with this strategy when would the shares need to be purchased?
Thank-you
It is fairly hard to predict profitability and cash flow two years out, but we don't think it is that bad of a strategy. There is still 1.15% left on the table to the deal close, so depending on timeframe that is more or less the same as a fixed income investment (assuming the deal does close). Thus, one essentially then gets the CVRs for free. The CVRs at full payout will be worth 61c. So, one risks $18.29 for a couple of months for a 'shot' at 61c. If the deal fails to close of course it will end up to be a very ugly bet on 61c. Analysts estimated $114M in EBITDA in 2025 before this deal was announced. With some growth, $128M is certainly doable. We have not seen the circular yet, but expected close is March 31. Shares purchased would need to settle before the closing date.