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  5. BIR: Reading recent comments on Birchcliff Energy 5i didn’t think a dividend cut was imminent and you felt they would issue debt to fund the dividend if need be. [Birchcliff Energy Ltd.]
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Q: Reading recent comments on Birchcliff Energy 5i didn’t think a dividend cut was imminent and you felt they would issue debt to fund the dividend if need be. Just curious as to the rationale for this opinion. Also, do you feel Bir is good buy at these reduced levels? Finally, In light of today’s dividend cut and significant drop is this company now a prime candidate for a takeover and if so then why?
Asked by Anthony on January 19, 2024
5i Research Answer:

BIR has a very strong balance sheet, and also instituted a share buyback program in November. In January 2023 it raised its dividend a massive 10X, from 2c to 20c, and at the time (and subsequently) the company made several comments about the sustainability of the new rate.  Because the big increase was fairly recent, and the company has the capacity to borrow, we did not expect a cut, especially with a buyback in place. We thought management was smart enough not to do such a 'flip flop'. Higher cash flow is expected this year also (but well down from 2022 levels). The company has been for sale in the past, and has a new CEO over the last year. With the dividend cut it is likely to stay in the doghouse for a while, and yes we do think this makes it a more attractive target.