Q: Wondering your thoughts on SN? My investment thesis is below, curious on your take?
Healthy top line growth, past and future with 10 consecutive quarters of organic double-digit top-line growth as of Q3 2025, also raised sales guidance which includes very conservative tariff estimates (i.e. high tariff rates)
Trading at 16x NTM earnings and 14x 2 years estimated earnings
Forecasting to approximately double cash flow over next two years
Debt/Equity of 0.4 and low net debt slightly above next years forecast cash flow
Plays into K shaped economy theme focussing on mid to upper tier consumers with discretionary, "nice to have" items
Motivated and capable leadership (featured in Bloomberg Businesweek recently), this is also confirmed by gross margin expansion through cost reduction during a difficult year for trade
Excellent marketing engine with proven track record using multiple sales channels (DTC, celebrity partneships, etc.)
Lots of success with new product lines, 25 introduced in 2025 and 3 that were category disruptors
Planning to significantly expand in Europe
Systematically reducing supply chain reliance on China
What's the bear case?
Healthy top line growth, past and future with 10 consecutive quarters of organic double-digit top-line growth as of Q3 2025, also raised sales guidance which includes very conservative tariff estimates (i.e. high tariff rates)
Trading at 16x NTM earnings and 14x 2 years estimated earnings
Forecasting to approximately double cash flow over next two years
Debt/Equity of 0.4 and low net debt slightly above next years forecast cash flow
Plays into K shaped economy theme focussing on mid to upper tier consumers with discretionary, "nice to have" items
Motivated and capable leadership (featured in Bloomberg Businesweek recently), this is also confirmed by gross margin expansion through cost reduction during a difficult year for trade
Excellent marketing engine with proven track record using multiple sales channels (DTC, celebrity partneships, etc.)
Lots of success with new product lines, 25 introduced in 2025 and 3 that were category disruptors
Planning to significantly expand in Europe
Systematically reducing supply chain reliance on China
What's the bear case?
