POET has doubled this year, bringing the market cap to $2B. Investors are speculating that it is close to signing a major hyperscaler partner, and the increased focus on optical interconnects for AI is also driving speculation. It has real catalysts - a first production order above $5M for its POET Infinity optical engines, plans to ship over 30,000 units in 2026, a $430M cash position, and a genuine technology platform targeting the AI data-center interconnect market.
But, its revenue base is still quite small ($1.1M on a trailing-twelve month basis), and it is cash flow negative and issues shares to fund its operations. It is not cheap, the story is interesting, but we would be fairly cautious here given its high levels of volatility and weak current fundamental base, but the outlook is increasingly improving. We would assess from the sidelines if its earnings truly materialize as currently estimated.