We like GFL strategically here - Secure is a high-quality, hard-to-replicate network of permitted industrial waste assets in Western Canada, and the deal is expected to be immediately accretive to free cash flow per share by 12-15%. The 80% share consideration is a big bite and explains the ~8% drop on announcement, as markets typically punish acquirers paying with stock at this scale. Near term, we would expect the stock to remain under some pressure until the deal closes in the second half of the year and investors get more visibility on integration.
Longer term, we think this makes GFL a stronger business - adding Secure's industrial and energy-linked waste streams to its existing platform. For investors already holding, we would hold. For new buyers, the pullback is not unreasonable to begin building a position, with patience required through the close.