Q: I’m looking into Almonty and trying to separate substance from narrative.
Tungsten is often framed as a U.S. critical mineral and the West is clearly dependent on China, but I’m wondering how much that actually translates into shareholder value. Sangdong in South Korea only restarted production in 2025, but it did operate historically and shut down mainly due to pricing and Chinese oversupply rather than geology.
Management also recently hired a former U.S. general into a senior operating role, which could signal an attempt to align with defense or strategic supply chains, though it’s unclear how tangible that is in practice.
What % of portfolio allocation would you recommend? And how do you view the future growth of this company?
Tungsten is often framed as a U.S. critical mineral and the West is clearly dependent on China, but I’m wondering how much that actually translates into shareholder value. Sangdong in South Korea only restarted production in 2025, but it did operate historically and shut down mainly due to pricing and Chinese oversupply rather than geology.
Management also recently hired a former U.S. general into a senior operating role, which could signal an attempt to align with defense or strategic supply chains, though it’s unclear how tangible that is in practice.
What % of portfolio allocation would you recommend? And how do you view the future growth of this company?
5i Research Answer:
Tungsten is considered a critical mineral in an industry that China dominates with 80% of tungsten market share. So, a bit of a scarcity premium on a name like AII makes sense. Revenues are expected to ramp up next year but there are some execution risks as they bring mines online. The main issue with a name like this is just the valuation. It is trading at 19X forward sales for a company that in fairness has good growth expected but is sensitive to commodity prices and tends to be a difficult business to operate, especially given risks arond ramping up operations. Weighting decisions are personal but we wold target a lower weighting in general with a name like this due to the inherent risks and valuation.