Q: I bought Aecon (ARE) back in 2023 with income in mind, entering at $11 and locking in a dividend yield close to 7%. In November 2024, when the stock climbed to $28, I asked whether it might be time to realize the gain. You encouraged me to hold and see how things unfolded. Shortly after that conversation, the stock dipped sharply to $15.
Just to be clear—I’m not blaming you at all for that. I appreciated your perspective then, and I still do now. I’m simply revisiting the decision with fresh eyes, given how things have evolved. Aecon has always been a bit of a yo-yo—volatile by nature. And I know myself: once I sell a stock like this, I won’t buy it back. That’s why I’m approaching this decision with care. The recent contract Aecon signed to expand into the U.S., especially in nuclear infrastructure, feels like more than just a bounce—it suggests real strategic potential.
Fast forward to today, and Aecon has rallied to a new high of $32. My position is held in a margin account, and I’m sitting on a capital gain of $22,900. Of course, selling now means paying tax—but so would selling later. The dividend yield gives me about $834.48 annually, which is modest compared to the capital gain.
You once told me to hold Aritzia and not to fear a likely weak quarter. That advice turned out well. And when Aecon announced its U.S. expansion, the stock responded strongly. I appreciated your insight then, and I trust your judgment. Now, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this one.
So here’s where I’m at: should I sell now and lock in the gain, or continue holding for long-term income and potential upside? I’m not looking for reassurance—I’m looking for your clear-eyed analysis.
Thanks in advance—I really value your perspective.
Just to be clear—I’m not blaming you at all for that. I appreciated your perspective then, and I still do now. I’m simply revisiting the decision with fresh eyes, given how things have evolved. Aecon has always been a bit of a yo-yo—volatile by nature. And I know myself: once I sell a stock like this, I won’t buy it back. That’s why I’m approaching this decision with care. The recent contract Aecon signed to expand into the U.S., especially in nuclear infrastructure, feels like more than just a bounce—it suggests real strategic potential.
Fast forward to today, and Aecon has rallied to a new high of $32. My position is held in a margin account, and I’m sitting on a capital gain of $22,900. Of course, selling now means paying tax—but so would selling later. The dividend yield gives me about $834.48 annually, which is modest compared to the capital gain.
You once told me to hold Aritzia and not to fear a likely weak quarter. That advice turned out well. And when Aecon announced its U.S. expansion, the stock responded strongly. I appreciated your insight then, and I trust your judgment. Now, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this one.
So here’s where I’m at: should I sell now and lock in the gain, or continue holding for long-term income and potential upside? I’m not looking for reassurance—I’m looking for your clear-eyed analysis.
Thanks in advance—I really value your perspective.
5i Research Answer:
It is important to keep in mind that in hindsight, a decision will always look wrong over some time period. We would try to focus less on what the stock has done in the past and more on what it is expected to tdo in the future.
ARE has good momentum currently, it trades at 22X forward earnings which isn't cheap but not really concerning. We like the move into nuclear and markets likely will as well. We don't see a reason to sell the name outright. One approach could simply be to rebalance. The shares have done well and managing the position size by trimming a bit could make sense.