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  5. BCT: I know it's tricky to evaluate a potential pharma cancer treatment equity but what do you think about this one? [BriaCell Therapeutics Corp.]
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Investment Q&A

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Q: I know it's tricky to evaluate a potential pharma cancer treatment equity but what do you think about this one? It looks like they'll need to dilute massively soon which likely explains my current ~80% paper loss. It's in my TFSA (stupid move on my part as it turns out). Time to take my hit and move on or hope for a miracle?
Asked by DAVE on April 01, 2024
5i Research Answer:

When a small company needs cash, and its stock is down a lot, it can set up a negative spiral. The amount of cash it needs does not change, so at a lower stock price more dilution has to naturally occur to get the same amount of cash needed by the company. Cash flow was negative $42M in the past 12 months, and considering market cap is only $62M then yes, a significant dilutive financing is quite likely. Headlines about illegal stock trading are not going to help sentiment towards the stock, either. Its cancer programs are interesting, but it is still early days here. Its breast cancer treatment has shown good effacy. In January, BCT filled a shelf prospectus for $200M in financing. While it is not without good potential for a bounce at some point, 'hope' is not one of our preferred investment strategies, and we would be comfortable moving on due to its small size and very high risk.