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  5. SUG: Your thoughts on Sucro Limited as an investment and it's chances against it's two Canadian competitors. [Sucro Limited]
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Q: Your thoughts on Sucro Limited as an investment and it's chances against it's two Canadian competitors.
Thanks
Asked by Paul on January 17, 2024
5i Research Answer:

SUG has only been listed for a few months. Market cap is $218M, dividend 1.06%, and shares are down 6% this year. It has two analysts, with a $15.25 average target price. Revenue rose 65% in the last quarter, but net income fell to $2M from $9.1M. Lower net unrealized results, and higher SG&A costs were to blame, as well as higher interest expenses. One thing throws us off here: in its prospectus, SUG forecast adjusted EBITDA of at least $63M. Then, only months after its listing, it now forecasts  $30M. We can understand the difficulty of forecasting, but this wasn't even close, and for a newly-listed company sets off a bad taste in investors' mouths. The company blamed its non-refining wholesale operations in the US and the Caribbean markets. Its focus is different than its Canadian peers, but with its small size and debt and a tough industry overall, we would prefer just to watch this one for now.