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  5. IJR: For some time 5i (and others) have noted that small cap valuations are low on a historic basis, and I also believe that you have commented that small caps often lead in a market turnaround? [iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF]
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Q: For some time 5i (and others) have noted that small cap valuations are low on a historic basis, and I also believe that you have commented that small caps often lead in a market turnaround? I really like a good "reversion to the mean" play, but what are the conditions for that to happen? I have to think inflation and higher interest rates are disproportionate headwinds for smaller companies vs large caps. What should one look for before buying a small cap ETF, or just forget the timing and figure you'll be happy in a few years one way or another? Thanks for your thoughts.
Asked by Stephen R. on October 19, 2023
5i Research Answer:

Certainly the headwinds noted are an issue, and of course that's why small caps are cheap. But essentially confidence is another consideration. Right now, 'everyone' is worried about 'everything', or so it seems. But we noticed an increase in M&A activity in the sector recently (NBLY, HEO, OPS and others). Longer term thinking management teams and larger companies are seeing value. We think a staggered approach is probably best, perhaps over three to four months. If one wants to play an ETF, we think mid November is probably best to capture some of the January effect after tax losses. But, we do not think timing is going to matter much. Small caps are not far from 2008 valuations, and the economy is certainly in different (better) shape than back then.