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  5. ZFL: I purchased ZFL as a hedge against the possbility of a recession. [BMO Long Federal Bond Index ETF]
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Q: I purchased ZFL as a hedge against the possbility of a recession. I am now down 8% on this position, interest rates keep going up and there is no recession. Assuming a balanced diversified portfolio, what would you do with ZFL; HOLD, SELL or Add ??
Many Thanks
John
Asked by John on June 21, 2023
5i Research Answer:

Bonds offer a nice diversification against a recession or slowdown in economic growth. ZFL pays a 3.6% yield, so it offers investors a solid yield while central banks determine their final monetary policy decisions. Largely, we think that we are near the end of the hiking cycle, inflation is coming down, it is near the target rate of 2%, and while the consumer is resilient, a tightened credit market can lead to negative outcomes occurring eventually, and bonds are essentially insurance against this. It's possible that the BoC increases rates two or more times by the end of the year, however, if inflation slows faster than expected, these goal posts may change and thus bond prices can be buoyed. We would be comfortable holding bonds here as insurance, however, we would prefer to wait until Canada's next inflation reading as well as the BoC decision to add to the position.