Basket Cases Or Opportunities?

Aaron Hodson Nov 17, 2012

All investors—even the professionals—have had their fair share of mistakes. In the investment world, it is more or less inevitable that you are going to buy a loser company every now and then. Don’t beat yourself up too much when this happens. As long as your ‘good’ names outnumber your ‘bad’ investments, you will probably be OK. That’s because the good ones will keep rising, year after year, and the bad ones, well, they can only go to $0, after all, and no further.

 

Still, there are companies out there that don’t really help you all that much. Like investors, companies ‘screw up’ on a regular basis, and as an investor you need to know if the problem is fixable. Sometimes, companies that have looked so awesome screw up so badly that the drop in their share price reaches epic proportions, as a “once-loved” name becomes, in investors’ eyes, a “complete dog”. In some cases, a previous premium valuation on a stock often gives way to a ‘give-away’ price. But, in just as many cases, you still don’t want to own the stock, even at that ‘give-away’ price.

Let’s take a look at a few companies that have, for lack of a better phrase, “screwed it up”, and examine what happened, and if there is any hope left.

Niko Resources (NKO on TSX) was an $8 stock back in 2001. It then went on a huge run following some big Indian gas discoveries, and rose above $110 in 2010. Now, it’s back more or less where it was 11 years ago. In 2007, it raised $500 million, at $105 per share, and its market cap today is actually less than that. What happened? Well, expensive wells were dry, it got hit with political issues in Bangladesh, and it has a big debt load now looming over its head. It recently cut its dividend to save some money. Is it over for Niko? Well, BMO says its failure to outline a debt repayment plan is ‘disconcerting’. The shares are down 81% this year. We would avoid this until there is some greater clarity on its convertible debentures.

BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. (BXI on TSX). BioExx is a company that developed a new way of processing canola oil. Its past five financings over the past three years raised a total of $83 million. Its market cap now is just $18 million. It is also in the process of raising money via a convertible debenture offering right now. The company states this is ‘an exciting time for the company’. BioExx is still showing the potential of scaling up its production process, but financing issues are now coming into play. Again, too much risk on this one.

CML Healthcare, Inc. (CLC on TSX). CML offers medical imaging and lab services in Ontario. Its recent third-quarter earnings were a big miss, but the company in our view screwed up by not announcing a dividend cut. EVERYONE now expects a cut, and the stock has been killed because of the dividend uncertainty. Uncertainty is not what any stock needs in this environment. The earnings miss was bad, but the stock might not have fallen so much if the Board laid out the dividend cut at the same time. This one probably has potential now; it has been beaten up a bit too much over this issue. The stock is down 36% year-to-date.

IBI Group Inc. (IBG on TSX) is in almost the exact same boat as CML. It too missed earnings expectations by a wide margin. The professional services and infrastructure company reported earnings of $0.13 per share, down 47%. But the Board chose not to cut the dividend, which now yields 17.8%. Stonecap Securities says a 50% dividend cut would actually be positive for the shares of IBI. Our view: The company still has value, and is profitable. But investors just won’t be caring much until there is more clarity on the dividend. Like CML, the company should have taken the bad medicine at the same time as its earnings release.

Groupon (GRPN on NASDAQ): Well, you can’t screw it up much better (worse?) than Groupon did. After rejecting a $6 billion takeover by Google, Groupon decided to go public, with its IPO at $20 per share, valuing the company at $13 billion. The decision looked good, for a day or so. Now, after missing earnings and pretty much everything else, shares trade at $2.63, and the whole company is worth just $1.7 billion. Is GRPN worth buying? Probably not. The company never really had a competitive advantage, and other deal companies are springing up everywhere. Consumers also likely have ‘coupon-fatigue. Should have taken the Google money, Groupon.

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