Market Sluts

Aaron Hodson Mar 10, 2012

Peter Hodson, Financial Post · Mar. 10, 2012 | Last Updated: Mar. 10, 2012 3:06 AM ET

I have to start this article delicately, but since we're trying to make a point, here goes: Most young men, as they go through the dating world, are warned by their parents to stay away from women who are, um, too liberal with their, let's say, charms. Sure, have some fun, parents might say, but don't you dare marry one of these women - you might just be asking for trouble.

The same can be said of companies. Invest in a company that is too liberal in issuing out its charms, in this case, shares, and you might find yourself in trouble in the long term.

We ran a Bloomberg screen recently to see which companies in Canada have been the most prolific issuers of shares. We then took a look at how these companies subsequently fared in terms of share price performance. The theory is that the more shares a company issues, the harder it is for investors to see share gains. It's simple mathematics: Your earnings are divided by more shares.

In our exercise, we eliminated really large companies that have been around for decades, if not centuries. Here's what we found:

At the top of the prolific issuers list is Katanga Mining Ltd. (KAT/TSX). Katanga has a stunning 1.9 billion shares outstanding. Two deals in 2009 were responsible for a huge increase in the number of shares: 971 million shares were issued in exchange for debt in 2009, and 718 million new shares were issued in a rights offering to shareholders the same year. In the "wow" category, there was a takeover bid that failed in 2006 that valued the company at more than $16 per share. Its shares are $1.17 now and down 29% over the past year.

Next up, Canickle Mining Ltd. (CML/TSX) - until last year known as Crowflight Minerals Inc. - has 1.5 billion shares outstanding and a oneyear return of -46%.

Turbo Power Systems Inc. (TPS/TSX) has 1.4 billion shares outstanding and a oneyear return of -67%. The TSX is currently reviewing the listing status of this power-generation company.

Candax Energy Inc. (CAX/TSX) has nearly 1.1 billion shares outstanding and its stock trades at $0.07. Lo and behold, its one-year return is plus 50%. It recently closed a $12-million private placement of 214 million units at $0.055 per unit. But keep in mind the stock traded above $1 in 2008.

Uranium One Inc. (UUU/ TSX) has had a good year in 2012 (up 40%), but its oneyear return is still a horrible -51%. The company raised $150-million in 2006 at $8.30 per share, so there is still a ways to go for those buyers to make money off of this stock, now near $3.00.

We wanted to keep our list confined to companies with close to one billion shares, so we thought we would need to move to the Venture Exchange. That didn't help. Quetzal Energy Ltd. (QEI/ TSX-V) has 601 million shares outstanding and a one-year return of -44%. Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (FO/TSX-V) has 695 million shares outstanding and a one-year return of -45%. This 10¢ stock was above $6 in 2006.

What's the point here? If a company issues too much stock, it's next to impossible to make any money from it.

As your parents might have said: It's OK to trade these names, but don't you dare get attached to them for too long. It's common sense, but it bears repeating.

Peter Hodson, CFA, is CEO of 5i Research Inc., a conflictfree independent investment research network.

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