Don't wait for the FED

Aaron Hodson Dec 15, 2011

Markets got crushed again this week, as the European crisis continued seemingly forever and as the FED declined to provide more stimulus to the economy.

“Why doesn’t the FED do something?” was the lament of several investors we talked to this week. “Where is QE3? Why doesn’t the ECB start selling bonds and solve this crisis?”

There are some many problems with these investors’ comments. Let’s start with some:

First, as you have clearly seen over the past three years, not much—if any—of the worldwide government “rescue” operations has actually resulted in much. Three years after the peak of the financial crisis, the world is still awash in fear, debt, negativity and despair. Unemployment is still way too high. Housing prices have done little. The stock market, has risen a bit, sure, but looks pretty vulnerable to a big fall again.

We have had TARP I and TARP II, QE1 and QE2, asset purchases and tax rebates, housing incentives and spending incentives, record low interest rates and job incentives. With all this, all the governments—particularly in the US—have really done is spend more money, get us and our children all more in debt and kick the can further down the road. This may have actually been the correct strategy at the time the financial world was teetering precariously on the edge, but as far as ‘solving’ the crisis goes, well, not so much.

So, be careful what you wish for. If you want more Quantitative Easing, fine, especially if you like gold. Just keep in mind this might not actually ‘solve’ anything at all.

The second problem with relying on government support for the market is that it makes you, as an investor, feel powerless. Blaming the FED for your troubles can make you stop looking for good investments, and make you apathetic towards change. As we say to our kids, “stop blaming your sister for your actions”. A negative attitude will also of course, cause you to oversee the positives that might be occurring in the investment world, and might cause you to miss the eventual recovery—when it actually happens—altogether.

For example, there are good things happening all over in the corporate world. Certain companies don’t seem to want to wait for the FED to take control of the future. Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP on NASDAQ) this week decided to take advantage of historically low interest rates and fund a special $15 per share dividend to shareholders. The dividend is 33% or so of its share price. It also announced a share buyback. Sure, the strategy adds some debt to the company’s balance sheet. But with rates so low, the tax-advantages of such a payment and the company’s inherent earnings power, Cabot is clearly not waiting for the FED to tell it what to do. The stock is up 9% this year.

Corporate buyers don’t seem to care about the FED, either. Grande Cache, Quadra FNX, Novellus Systems and others have all been recently scooped up at nice premiums. Corporate executives are thinking, “rates are low, valuations are low, balance sheets are strong and the economy is weak”—clearly a much better time to buy a company than when interest rates are high and valuations have surged. Seems like a no brainer to buy companies, then, from a corporate perspective, despite what governments might or might not be doing.

As you consider the above, maybe you are still fretting about Europe. Sure, the European zone is a basket case, and maybe the Euro is going to fall apart one of these days. But go back to before Jan. 1st, 1999, when the Euro started trading. The world seemed to work fine prior to the Euro. In fact, if my memory serves correctly, it was a great period for equity markets before the Euro. The world—and corporations—could survive again without it. Some would even figure out a way to profit from Euro disbandment.

The point here is a stock investment is an investment in a company. It is not an investment in a country or currency (although of course many companies’ earnings swing with currency movements). If your company is doing well, then forget about the FED or the ECB. As my former boss would have said, those entities don’t know what they are doing, anyway. 

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