Q: Let’s talk index growth potential, generally.
We see the S&P500 has a 7+% weighting of Apple and a 22% concentration in the top 5 stocks. Reports are that tech drives the index growth much more than the remaining companies. Other indices around the world do not have this anomaly. e.g. TSXComp, MSCI World, MSCI EAFE (all typical of locked pension funds)
As we eventually move past this period where a recession may or may not happen, and market downturns may or may not happen, which areas (and these indices) may enjoy a healthy, lower-risk yet most favourable delta over the next 3-6-9 years? Is Warren Buffet on the right track when he recommends that his wife stay with just the S&P500 when he’s gone?
Clayton
We see the S&P500 has a 7+% weighting of Apple and a 22% concentration in the top 5 stocks. Reports are that tech drives the index growth much more than the remaining companies. Other indices around the world do not have this anomaly. e.g. TSXComp, MSCI World, MSCI EAFE (all typical of locked pension funds)
As we eventually move past this period where a recession may or may not happen, and market downturns may or may not happen, which areas (and these indices) may enjoy a healthy, lower-risk yet most favourable delta over the next 3-6-9 years? Is Warren Buffet on the right track when he recommends that his wife stay with just the S&P500 when he’s gone?
Clayton
5i Research Answer:
Outside of tech, we think discretionary and industrials could do well. They tend to trade at cheaper levels and should be exposed to broad economic growth if/when the economy reaccelerates or sentiment shifts to a more positive stance. There also tend to be higher growth companies in these sectors as a starting point.