Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team,
Regarding Nutrien, I read your answer to 5i member Maureen, and also just finished today's article in the Globe and Mail:"Nutrien shares fade on disappointing first-quarter earnings" by Ian McGugan. In your view, is Ian's thesis valid, and would now be a good time to sell NTR if one has already made some money on it? What would be some better (?) and less volatile options in the Materials sector?
Thanks as always for your insight.
Regarding Nutrien, I read your answer to 5i member Maureen, and also just finished today's article in the Globe and Mail:"Nutrien shares fade on disappointing first-quarter earnings" by Ian McGugan. In your view, is Ian's thesis valid, and would now be a good time to sell NTR if one has already made some money on it? What would be some better (?) and less volatile options in the Materials sector?
Thanks as always for your insight.
5i Research Answer:
Cyclicals are always tough, and the thesis ha som validity. But simply the fact that it is in the media does imply (along with the low valuation) that investors are pricing in at least some macro/pricing risk. No one knows the extent of any downturn, but with a 3.5% dividend (recent raised) and the valuation we would continue to be comfortable holding the stock. That being said, golds (AEM, FNV) might do better in the short term, especially if rates pivot or the US defaults. But golds are alo volatile. SJ we think is a less-volatile option within the sector.