NTR has experienced significant tailwinds in the last two years due to inflation, and is now trading at 7.8x times' Forward P/E. In the recent quarter, NTR’s revenue declined by -20% to $5.91B (net after freight cost), missing estimates of $6.32B and EPS is $1.11 also missing estimates of $1.49. The balance sheet is okay, with net debt of $13.8B. Total debt is around 1.9x times the trailing twelve-month cash flow of $7.3B, and cash flow declined around -10% compared to $8.1B last year, driven by declining sales. We like the aggressive share repurchases recently (Q1-2023’s shares outstanding declined by 10% compared to the same period in 2022). The company also guided down the in quarter, adjusting 2023’s EBITDA from $8.4B-10B to the range of $6.5B-8.0B, and EPS from $8.45-10.65 to $5.50-$7.50.
Overall, not a really great quarter and near-term outlook after two booming years. Howeve, we think the share price is cheap, with significant buyback, this is like a value stock, and we are okay to buy at this valuation.