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  5. CM: Hi, We own above Canadian banks, which makes up the financial sector of our portfolio. [Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce]
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Q: Hi, We own above Canadian banks, which makes up the financial sector of our portfolio.

On an YTD basis, interestingly, their performance has diverged significantly, with CM +7%, RY +2.5% and TD -9%. During past 30 days (reflecting impact of recent crisis in financial sector SVB/SB), these names have declined as follows : CM -7%, RY -8% and TD -17%. Does it mean that market is assigning higher risk to TD, relative to its peers ? Does it make one name more attractive than others, and if so why, if we wish to take advantage of the sizable decline in their share prices, and add for long term investment ?

Thank You

Asked by rajeev on March 23, 2023
5i Research Answer:

We would caution against making any assumptions on a 30-day performance period, or even YTD. But for TD at least there is an easy explanation: it is in the middle of a takeover of FHN, a $13B takeover of a company in the middle of the US regional bank crisis. TD has said it is committed, but FHN shares are well below the offer price and no one expects this deal to close as is. Even prior to this deal TD has the most US exposure and thus its stock has been hit much harder. RY also has a big acquisition (HSBC) ongoing and has US exposure. If adding, we would be comfortable with any of the Canadian banks noted. While we do not think volatility is going to go away in the short term, we do not think the crisis extends into Canada. Our financial system is much stronger (less competition) and better regulated. There is still (always) economic risk, but our banks are priced for this already.